A left-handed server steps in at 40–30 and slices wide to a right-hander’s backhand. The returner is pulled off the court on the one point that closes the game. It is a familiar picture, and the scoreboard gives it a particular shape.
Three of the four usual scores where the server can win the game on the next point are played from the ad court: 40–0, 40–30, and advantage. Only 40–15 is served from the deuce side. If a left-hander’s better serve is the one from the ad court, the scoring system keeps offering that side when the game is on the line.
More chances, not three times the chances
Both left-handers and right-handers can win the game from every one of those scores. The question is whether their serve works better from one side than the other. Counting four score lines and finding three on the ad side also does not mean three-quarters of the real chances fall there. Those scores happen at different rates, and advantage points can repeat.
In this sample, about 71.6 percent of the server’s game-point chances were played from the ad court. That is a clear majority. It is not an exact 75 percent, and it is not a three-to-one edge in games won.
What the point records show
Tennis in 60 rebuilt standard games from 17,840 validated ATP and WTA singles matches from 2011 to 2015, using archived point-by-point records compiled by Jeff Sackmann. Servers were matched to player lists that record playing hand. Tiebreaks were left out, and so were points where the server’s hand could not be matched.
Left-handed men won 62.0 percent of service points on the deuce side and 64.1 percent on the ad side. Right-handed men won 64.1 percent on the deuce side and 62.8 percent on the ad side. Left-handed women won 56.4 percent on the deuce side and 58.2 percent on the ad side. Right-handed women won 56.5 percent on the deuce side and 55.2 percent on the ad side.
The pattern was the same on both tours. Left-handers served better from the ad court. Right-handers served better from the deuce court.
For the men, the left-handed ad-court edge was still there after Rafael Nadal’s points were removed: 63.7 percent on the ad side, against 61.6 percent on the deuce side. The result was not only one exceptional player.
On the points that could win the game, left-handed servers in men’s matches converted 65.6 percent of their ad-court game points, against 64.3 percent for right-handers. In women’s matches the figures were 59.8 percent and 56.5 percent.
These are descriptions of finished points. They do not separate handedness from how good the server is, how good the opponent is, the surface, or the score itself. A better server is also more likely to reach a comfortable game point in the first place.
The pattern still fits the tactic. Against a right-handed receiver, a left-hander’s slice from the ad court can run wide to the backhand and open the court for the next ball. The score keeps putting the server on that side at game point. Earlier work from Tennis Abstract found the same split: right-handers and left-handers prefer opposite courts. The observation is older than a coaching slogan.
Would no-ad scoring change it?
Under a standard no-ad rule, a game that reaches deuce is decided by one point, and the receiver chooses the side. In ordinary doubles, players are not free to swap receiving positions for that point. Mixed doubles has its own receiving rule.
A receiver facing a left-hander’s strong ad-court serve could choose the deuce court and take that particular serve out of the deciding point. That is a plausible effect. It was not tested in these advantage-scoring matches.
No-ad scoring also leaves the earlier 40–0 and 40–30 chances on the ad side. It changes the last point at deuce. It does not remove every left-handed benefit.
For players and coaches, the practical part is simpler. Build a serve you trust from both sides, and know where the score creates the opening. Left-handers can make the ad court a pattern. Right-handers can answer it with placement and variation.
Most serving game points sit on the ad court. In this historical sample, that was the stronger serving side for left-handers. Together, those findings support a tactical edge measured in small differences, not a threefold jump in the chance of winning the game.
How the points were counted
The count used Jeff Sackmann’s tennis_pointbypoint archive and ATP and WTA player tables from a tennis-sackmann archive mirror. Duplicate matches were removed. Rebuilt scores and winners had to match the recorded results. That left 9,075 ATP and 8,765 WTA matches from 2011 to 2015. Handedness was matched on full names. Unknown servers were left out. Only standard games were counted, with each game starting on the deuce court and the side taken from the point order. A server game point starts with the server already on at least three points and ahead by at least one. The set includes 2,477,291 service points with a known hand and 458,585 server game-point chances, 328,309 of them on the ad side. Points are weighted equally, not by player, and they are not adjusted for other factors. The count does not estimate a causal hold advantage, and it does not test no-ad scoring.